Category: Blog
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Bolt 37 — Can Parents Be Miscalibrated About a Child?
Parents know their children deeply, but parental judgement is still a model that can be accurate, uncertain, optimistic, pessimistic or outdated. Bolt 37 examines parental expectations, judgement accuracy, overaspiration and why family beliefs must remain correctable by evidence.
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Bolt Measurement Note 08 — After a Very Bad Result, Improvement May Not Mean the Fix Worked
Supplementary to the Bolt 01–40 core. A rebound after an unusually poor result can reflect regression toward baseline as well as genuine improvement.
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Bolt Measurement Note 07 — Two Students Can Get the Same Score for Different Reasons
Supplementary to the Bolt 01–40 core. Identical scores can be produced by different mechanisms, so the same number does not imply the same learning problem.
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Bolt Measurement Note 06 — The Same Average Can Hide a Wider Performance Gap
Supplementary to the Bolt 01–40 core. The same mean score can conceal very different distributions, spreads and learner trajectories.
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Bolt Measurement Note 05 — A Class Average Can Improve While Some Students Fall Behind
Supplementary to the Bolt 01–40 core. A rising class average is evidence about a group aggregate, not proof that every learner improved.
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Bolt 36 — Can a School Be Miscalibrated About a Student?
Schools measure students, but schools are also measurement systems that can be right, uncertain or wrong. Bolt 36 examines teacher judgement accuracy, expectation effects, bias and the need for institutional models of learners to remain correctable by evidence.
